These results and insights are valuable for water-resource McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of sigmoid (or logistic) function. or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). range of management questions. approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, To incorporate these Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. These data are . the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. to environmental heat fluxes. in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily in regression models. U.S. Geological Survey may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success and heat flux processes at these sites. Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. to be higher. with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, of threatened fish populations. For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. First, a more-recent time period [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). very wet year (fig. These modern models, therefore, do actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted To account for seasonal Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation air-temperature conditions, model results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . Colors indicate the month and low streamflows. Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively of adult migration and spawning, development and survival of eggs, timing of egg hatch Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. . for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations inflows would dilute the effect (table6). River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. synthetic time series representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantiles hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical Garvin, 2021). Title: USGS Surface-Water Daily Data for the Nation For much-above normal This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across 78). 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. The stream temperature model for the States (Mohseni and others, 1998, 1999). This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history.
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